V0ldek, v0ldek@awful.systems

Their cash flow suggests they were heavily leveraged on crypto

Wait what, GitLab was doing crypto? The fuck is going on in those people’s heads

Two things:

One, it’s a remarkable accomplishment to not manage to cook an IPO even now when SEC is functionally gutted by the Trump admin. They made crime legal! What are you doing?! Just lie in the statements and run to Barbados or something

Two, I am baffled by this

Harrison Rolfes from Pitchbook (…) thinks a good time for OpenAI to do an IPO is “mid-to-late 2027”. He wants a few quarters of “clean execution” and not floundering.

Like what? What are you talking about. The whole point of the IPO is to cash out ASAP before the music stops. Why are you talking about OpenAI like it’s a real business? Am I in Wonderland? The best time for OpenAI to make an IPO was yesterday, the second best is right fucking now, how would waiting a year be possibly good for them

That’s the straw. I am moving to the woods [switching to vim]

Raycast says they had nothing to do with the ad, and learnt of it only when the Hacker News thread took off.

Wait but like that means that MSFT didn’t get money for the ad from Raycast? So like, they just put ads into stuff for no reason whatsoever??

You only list one submission in the tier list, but you mention that there were a few to the first problem. Did other submissions fail so miserably they didn’t even qualify for a tier?

How can I short this

He walked so they could run

If anything, he is pissed that he wasn’t born now that there’s no consequences for this shit

In hindsight, it wasn’t the best of ideas.

I mean, it was obvious at the time as well, but nevertheless

Fuck that stupid owl, I never liked it

But if both are going to get obliterated in the next five years then the hedge is to buy like, govt bonds. It doesn’t matter if your fund goes down -20% when the entire market went -40%, you’re still losing to the guy who kept his cash under his mattress.

Do we think that a pop of an AI bubble will not result in a massive wipe all across the board, not just with “AI enablers”? These companies are also going to lose value in a recession.

He outside tho

I guess my confusion is this – at what point does reality exert any influence on the lies-and-trash accounting? What in the physical reality is the reason they can’t just keep fapcircling the economy forever?

So we don’t have smoking gun evidence that Windows 11 is broken trash literally because of vibe coding. But Windows 11 feels like the most vibe coded thing ever. Nobody cared about Windows 11 working. Microsoft, where quality is job number 55 or so!

I think the timelines don’t quite match for that, when Windows 11 came out the LLMs couldn’t even output code that compiled more than half the time. However, the moment I’ve learnt the start menu was coded in React I knew the age of man Windows was over. I don’t know how good the guy behind it was in internal politics but everyone on the path from the idea to pushing it to main should be tried for treason and sent to hard labour (debugging the Azure web UI).

I think this was the good old artisinal vibe coding of the previous era, where you still had to not care about quality manually.

wasn’t audited (…) prompting the SEC to open their own investigation.

Ye, I guess I should’ve said “investigated” there, precision is important here.

There’s not only no stock-holding public to hold them to account, even if there was and they filed a lawsuit nothing would happen. SEC doesn’t exist.

I guess this is the part I don’t understand - can’t they all just play this game of pretend forever? There has to be something that corresponds to music stopping in your musical chairs analogy, but if everyone plays along forever what happens? Is there any load bearing part of this bubble where real reality can have an impact? If the stakes of calling the bluff are a complete collapse of the stock market then why would any NVidia stockholders call the bluff ever?

So you talk about Depression 2, but do you have any idea of what could possibly be the spark? You compare it to Enron, but Enron got had because they got audited. The AI bubble seems unparalleled in creating fake money from nothing, is there any limit to how long they do it? Tether still exists

Also “tokens per watt per dollar” by god where are we. It’s like when Elon started to talk about “userminutes per tweetparsec per death threat” or whatever when he took over Twitter

Huh, I hope Satya asks Copilot how to solve this or they’re in trouble!

Wait, does the Starlink internet suck as well? I mean, it has to have high latency, that much I’ve assumed, but other than that?

The market can remain irrational longer than a chud’s heart can remain functional